Showing posts with label You Never Can Tell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label You Never Can Tell. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Do the descendent technologies from Bletchley Park protect or erode our freedoms?

Sometimes it is the juxta-positioning of events which adds a poignancy to ones experience. Such was the case within the last twenty four hours.

A visit to the famous Bletchley Park war-time code-breaking centre was an introduction to the world of Enigma, Bombe, Ultra and Hut 6. The replicated version of the world’s first semi-programmable computer, Colossus, gave an insight into what this technology could do in a benign context.

Contrast this with a small 21st century cameo today where I sought a replacement registration plate for the car. A simple transaction now acquires the status of something more bureaucratic, ie being asked for the log book and another form of identity, so as to check that bogus plates are not created.

Seems innocent enough, but this is yet another example of the incremental acquisition of data for the state. Turing, Flowers and their mates might be wondering whether sixty years on, they unleashed a technology as great a threat to our individual freedoms, as the causes to which Colossus was being harnessed in the first place.

Monday, August 22, 2011

“Good politics but bad policy”. A phrase from Tony Blair worth keeping.

One phrase in Tony Blair’s Observer article about the recent 2011 city unrest, may be remembered long after the rest of his article has become forgotten. Recalling his own position about moral decline in society and the James Bulger affair, he noted that his 1993 speech was “good politics but bad policy”. It has a ring to it showing a contrition and awareness that was lacking when in office.

Such reflection stands Blair well. But have you noticed how other ex-party leaders seem to grow in stature after leaving office? Iain Duncan Smith, Paddy Ashdown and John Major seem to display a clarity of thought that was lacking in their younger years. Unimpeded by the weight of office they can now articulate a perspective of our present condition which eluded them in younger years. One might even call it statesmanship. Perhaps our aspiring political leaders need to put more time in to acquire a hinterland and sense of perspective before they step forward for the prize they seek.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

What happens when the A Level pass rate reaches 100%?

So the A level results are out for another year. The UCAS-fest springs into action. For the 29th year in succession there have been improvements. In any other walk of life, especially business, this would have been met with incredulity as to how this had come about. A Dragon Den’s investor would be in ecstasy. Bonuses would have been showered upon staff, handsome dividends paid out to shareholders and stock market valuations at a premium.

Grade inflation and a devalued educational examination system are words that dare not be spoken. If one puts educational performances under scrutiny, one may be accused of undermining the hard work of teachers and the efforts of their students. An ogre taking sweets from the kids.

And yet there must be something wrong, as our economy faces a skills shortage and many in the educational system struggle to hit basic levels of literacy and numeracy. It is not by chance that skilled economic migrants from Europe seek their chances with us.

A visitor from another planet would be forgiven for thinking that somehow there is an inconsistency between educational performances as measured by exam results (not just A level at that), the performance of our economy and the skill levels of those seeking employment.

Michael Gove and his pals are caught between a rock and a hard place. Criticise the results inflation and you are a killjoy. Praise them and one is participating in the delusion that our economy has a decent skills base. The big question of course is what do we do when in a few years time the pass rate reaches 100%?

Airport departure lounges can damage your health.

Along with duty free and coffee shops, airport departure lounges are where you find bookshops. Purchasing a text to while away the tedium of travel is a given. Take care what you buy though.

What really hits you, is the undue prominence on the shelves of self-improvement tomes, either of the personal relationship or business variety. Travel is a stressful enough exercise at the best of times, without being reminded of how inadequate your emotional intelligence or management skills might be.

The pressure is on you to get an instant solution to your problems by making that purchase. You get a metaphorical MBA or counselling qualification before you reach your destination then.

You are drawn in by the titles which fan your anxieties. You feel insecure when confronted with a number of texts that you think you ought to buy, but from a quick bit of browsing are not sure how to cast your vote. If you buy there is the lingering thought in your mind that you got the wrong one. As you take off you think the right one is still on that shelf.

As I wait in Dubai’s terminal, there is a performance before me from a suitably suited and booted sales guy. He is encouraging passers-by to view a video clip of recently published management texts. Terms such as “extreme leadership” and “massive goals” jump off the screen and invade the sensibilities. No subtlety here then.

With all of the economic and domestic problems facing us, one would have thought that the cumulative reading of these improvement books would have yielded some solutions. A game-changer in our lives. Alas, the reverse is the case and the hyperbole written washes over us. We are suspicious of simplistic solutions which are laid out as “10 Ways to…….”.

One can have an inferiority complex as one starts off for the departure gate. These bookshops should be tendering us something more optimistic as we pull out our boarding card.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Ed Miliband’s surreal interview with Damon Green. Viewers are sick to death of interviews when they are being treated with disrespect by the media circus and politicians.

Ed Miliband’s interview with ITV’s Damon Green about public sector strikes took one into a surrealistic world when it comes to pinning down politicians. We are used to their sliding and slipping as they use straw man thinking and the rephrasing of a question to gain more favourable ground. Miliband’s repetition of the same phraseology to five questions was something to behold. Questions and answers seemed to live in different worlds. Sound bites had to be got out at all costs. The editing processes of the broadcaster circumvented.

There are only so many ways of delivering “when negotiations are still going on…both sides round the negotiation table and put aside rhetoric blah blah.” It made Paxman’s famously repeated Newsnight questioning of Michael Howard over prisons look sane.

In the world of presentations, it makes sense to make few and focussed points, but Miliband’s action replays just took him away from the way the rest of us communicate. You Tube has now fixed the evidence for ever.




“When things go wrong one tends to do more the same with greater intensity.” is a well-known quote but this usually covers situations where tempers are short and exasperation rules. What makes Miliband’s performance stand out is that it was done with methodical coolness of mind. Unfortunately, the practice is now prevalent across the Westminster Village.

News Corporation’s hacking hiatus puts the press under scrutiny from politicians. When the dust has settled and we have a reconfigured press, let us hope that one of their first tasks is to stop the interview circus we saw with Miliband. Politicians and the media know what is going on as they play out this charade. Viewers and the electorate deserve better.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Cheryl Cole and her accent. Does how we speak have any relevance to success in business?

The recent controversy at the X Factor and Fox TV over Cheryl Cole, Simon Cowell and Accentgate, gives visibility to a topic which rarely tops the headlines. Rather surprising in the age of mass communication, celebrity and the mediafest.

In 2011, we are obsessed with lifestyle, perception and image, but somehow this stops when it comes to our vocal dexterity. Perhaps it’s the equivalent of not looking after our teeth.

At school, we get qualifications in reading and writing and later we add business, professional and technical skills. The poor relation is our elocution for which we receive no qualification or training. It is a skill acquired on the hoof, if at all. A couple of hours with a voice coach might be a no-brainer.

How often have we seen a snazzy PowerPoint delivery brought to its knees by poor speaking skills? Makes one realise how good the voice-over artists are on the television documentary.

The debate can be held as to whether Ms Cole should modify her accent – the downside is that she may lose character and become contrived – something out of Pygmalion perhaps.

The casualty of using certain accents is a lack of clarity and diction, and if this goes alongside other deficiencies such as variability, phrasing and volume, then the communication cycle is broken. The punchline is to make oneself understood.

The cut-glass accents of the aristocracy with their emphasis on consonants have largely gone, but the broader vowels of the regions stay in place. People from abroad seem to like an accent which is a downplayed version of received pronunciation (RP), delivered thoughtfully, confidently and with character.

A strength of British culture is the variety to be found amongst its component accents. Whether it be Cornish, Scouse, Estuary, Geordie, Midland or whatever, we have our own views of what is easy on the ear. Irrespective of accent, a criticism of many people is that they talk through their teeth, don’t open the jaws and ignore breathing.

As we record our personalised voicemail salutations or listen to our voices elsewhere, we know what we like. If the answer is a no, then we must spare a thought for our customers and do something about it. Networking, tendering and negotiating count for little if what you say grinds on the ear. Clients will just go elsewhere because they tend to buy from people they like. Accent may be one of the most obvious barriers to business and yet one so easy to rectify.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Capello says he only needs 100 words to communicate to his players - some of them are taking steps to do much better.

After working with a Buddhist monk, a candidate at the General Election and a company that had a share in building Dubai’s airport, one never quite knows who the next client will be.

Query solved, as a professional from one of the Premier League football clubs comes forward. An interesting guy planning his exit strategy from the beautiful game once his legs tire. A beacon where the normal imperatives are short-termism, taking a game at a time and conspicuous consumption.

Each profession has its distinctive culture and work regime, but few are literally played out before us under the gaze of Match of the Day. This is as precarious an occupation as it gets. Form, injury and a pool of colleagues waiting to fill your shoes make an unsettling context.

Getting to grips with the world of agents, bonuses, contracts, sponsorship, the media circus and the flamboyance of management is a challenge. Not surprising many go under.

Many professionals have difficulty adjusting to a world where they are not the focus of adulation and celebrity. Not many of us see our lives reported on the back page of the local rag. It can be a distortion. This is a world where decisions are in the hands of others and life ritualised by the club. Makes it difficult to step out and be yourself.

Credit to this professional as he looks at a world after playing, whether it be management, punditry or promotion work. This is a guy whose communication skills will be way beyond the clichés of “being sick as a parrot” or “over the moon”. When some famous names are shouting obscenities at the cameras, there are others crafting more professional presentation skills.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The anorexic telephone directory, communication style and the Big Society.

I hear a thump on the floor - some post through the box. It is the new edition of the BT directory.

Nothing of note, until I pick it up and notice just how thin it is. Business, classifieds and residential – all for less than a centimetre. There was a time when the tome gave me several inches of extra height when a ladder was not around.

So what’s going on? Well, the aneroxic listing shows we are now celebrity ex-directory or we just want to avoid being contacted by someone who might give us grief. Perhaps the geographical boundaries have changed. Comparison with last year’s offering suggests not. Other currents are at work.

The mobile phone in its numerous manifestations is taking its toll of its terrestrial cousin. Apparently, 25% of US households already get by with no landline. If one does have both facilities, it can be a shock when the traditional variant actually rings. It is probably an aged relative. If the answering service is activated, we probably ignore it when we get back, knowing that if someone really wants us they will use the mobile.

Most people under twenty have probably not experienced answering a phone connected by an umbilical cord to the wall. They would have no idea of what to do in a public callbox. Communication is now, anywhere, anytime and literally on the move.

This has crept on us and the implications for society and our communication styles not yet crystallised. The traditional phone was an in-house shared facility and switchboard. Families were aware of who was talking to whom even if the content was hushed. This was a strand of family connectivity which has been knocked away and our communication now becomes more individualistic than ever. Phone conversations are now individual events, a bit like our grazing habits on the food front.

The phonebook was an opportunity to scan who constitutes the local community. We may not have read it for fun, but at least it gave you an idea of who was around and what they did. Electronic on-screen versions do not provide the same sentient experience.

So next year the paper version will be wafer thin. In the meanwhile, our own personalised directory on the mobile lengthens. We have censored and chosen who we talk to. Not having a public listing, the opportunities for others to talk to us have been reduced. Is this the Big Society?

Thursday, March 24, 2011

A Black Country Enterprise Zone: a stimulus for business or a bullet to kill off enterprise?

Sometimes it is the juxtapositioning of events which adds to the poignancy of a situation. Such was the case today, with George Osborne’s budget announcement of 10 Enterprise Zones to stimulate business growth. This coincided with a letter in the local Express and Star, inviting ex-employees of a closed iron and steel plant, to meet up for a reunion.

What are you talking about you ask? Well this famous plant in the Black Country, and known as Round Oak, closed in the 1980’s. The derelict site was designated by the government of the time as an EZ at Brierley Hill, to stimulate new manufacturing and jobs. Planning controls were to be freed up and favourable tax and rate incentives posted.

Sorted then! Well not quite. A loop hole in the regulations encouraged rapid retail development, often using semi-skilled labour and consumer imports to the detriment of skilled artisans, manufacturing and exports. Nothing for the apprentice to go into then.

Local shopping centres could not compete with this regional shopping giant at Merry Hill. Firms which hitherto were located outside the EZ jumped across the boundary to access the financial goodies. Not much of a net increase in regional jobs to talk about.

The lamentable economic performance of places such as Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley and Sandwell today, may in part and ironically, owe their current status to the decision to create the initial EZ in the first place. See how many empty shops there are today with artistic posters outside to encourage you to think otherwise. What is being done to rectify the situation? Another EZ of course and thirty years on.

There is nothing wrong with these zones, as long as we ensure that they act as a stimulus to local enterprise and the benefits are spread. The reverse may be the case as their performance sucks the energy from the surrounds – a bit of a backwash or tsunami. Vicious rather than virtuous circles.

The newly created Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) will have enough challenges ahead of it as it removes the barriers to business. George Osborne has now added another ingredient into the mix. The boundaries will have to be drawn very carefully. We are still living with the impacts of the first EZs. The task ahead is to ensure that we have not just been given extra toppings.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Jamie Oliver’s Dream School – a Channel 4 media fest or relevant lessons in communication and motivation?

This week sees the start of Channel 4's Dream School, Jamie Oliver’s new television project. Celebrities with a particular subject expertise chance their arm in the classroom. For a while, it will put education on the front burner to compete against the Arab revolt and Coalition politics.

The assumption is that the hitherto poorly-motivated students, will experience a Damascene conversion as well-known experts from a wide spectrum of achievement, parade their wares and instructional skills.

Of course, the project is an artificial one, as the presence of cameras, celebrity teachers and being made a fuss of all kick in.

Nevertheless, the enterprise is worth a second take. It enables us to reflect on what actually constitutes good teaching in the first place. Commentators and reviewers usually deliver their critiques after the programmes have been shown, but bucking the trend here is an unscientific checklist, that we might have to hand as we view from the couch.

Communication is at the heart of good teaching, so how will our celebs perform? Do they have an interesting voice and presence? Do they use the space around them? Can we visualise them delivering 30 sessions a week?

Teaching some Economics ages ago, and not being particularly on top of the subject - even though I had been in The City - I had to go the extra mile in grasping the topics myself. I am sure this enabled a more sympathetic view of what the learners were experiencing and a more thoughtful insight in my preparation. The question before our celeb list of Dr Starkey, Alastair Campbell, Ellen MacArthur and others is quite simply “ What's in it for the students and what are they doing?” It is no good having expertise - the key skill is empathy for the perspective of the learner.

Many students don’t ask questions because they don’t know what they don’t know, and our celebs will have to cover this shortfall. Visual aids,relevant language as well as an understanding that we learn in different ways complete the picture.

Michael Gove is in uncertain waters creating a coherent policy out of academies, free schools, the use of ex-military staff on the payroll and the revelations of Ms Birbalsingh.

The punchline is that memorable teachers were ones with personality and charisma. They were ones who bucked the system and took risks. They have been squeezed out by the treadmill of assessment, clonal lesson structures and the devaluation of grades. It explains why we have such sterile teaching and alienated learners. If Oliver’s series exposes this, then it is to be applauded.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Let us make our politics less sanitised and a little more dangerous.

Blog posts are ephemeral, but occasionally it can be worth revisiting one already written. Here is an update of one from a year ago and written after the General Election.

As a teenager, I recall visiting Downing Street and putting my hand on the famous door. A tangible connection to history perhaps. Returning in my thirties, I was confronted with a wrought iron security gate. I felt saddened at the restriction.

'So what?' you might ask. Well today, we see a street turned into a giant outside broadcast backdrop for the media circus. A metaphor for the distance between the electorate and the political elite, with the Fourth Estate filling the vacuum and filtering what we are to know. We have a political disconnect and the geography of our most famous street exemplifies what has gone wrong. Politicians are now physically more secure behind these gates, but insulated from the approbation and heckling of the public.

The distance between government and the public is as great as ever. The former's misreading over the public perception of forest sales, the Big Society and banking bonuses are cases in point.

The political elite needs to meet real people with all the unpredictability that comes with it. Stop using audiences as patsy backdrops and contrived photo ops to legitimate "consultation". Now that would be real communication. AV electoral reform may signal a return to hustings, MPs widening their appeal, decent oratory, unsanitised debate and politics which is more lively and unpredictable. Now that would be a way of getting more people to vote.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Ever wondered why some people are better than others when speaking in public? It could be that they are saying nothing.

Whether it be a small meeting or at a larger more formal venue, speaking in front of others can be an ordeal. Steven Spielberg allegedly commented, that public speaking was in the top three phobias, after a fear of snakes and spiders. Drowning completed the trio.

There are plenty of business and management self-improvement books to buy at the airport departure lounge. Working on your voice is one of them. Accent, volume, diction, tone, intonation, resonance, pitch and variability are all in the toolbox. They come readily to mind as they involve activity. And yet, the most potent skill of all is ignored, because it involves doing nothing – we are talking of the “pause”.

In normal conversation, we speak at about 175 words a minute. A conversation is two people waiting impatiently to interrupt each other. The pause does not get a look in, and if used, can be disconcerting. Has something gone wrong?

Compare this with a presentation which is a one-sided interaction: the performer and the audience. Not getting any feedback from the second, it is easy for the presentation to become one-dimensional.

The pause introduces drama, variability and a sense of anticipation. It enables less to be said and the audience has time to reflect. The presenter has more time to think and be in control of events. Nerves can be handled. Pausing enables rhetorical devices such as rules of three to be optimised. Mastering the pause implies an awareness of timing which opens up the use of wit and anecdote.

Several years ago, I came across one of the BBC’s Natural History producers. We were discussing what made a good programme. Obviously, a stimulating script and visuals were must-haves. Almost as an aside, he noted that the use of pause and phrasing by the voice-over artist could make or break the final edit. Get the wrong narrator and everything is wasted.

There are some voices you just listen to. Think of Paul Vaughan and his voice-overs for the Horizon series and the early Orange adverts: "The future's bright...."

Blair, Obama, Bill Clinton and possibly Hague have it, but what about the rest of our current crop of public figures? Pausing and phrasing can illuminate the football results and a shipping forecast. Saying less, more slowly and with plenty of pauses can be the technique you need to get over that phobia. It worked for George V1!

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Big Society and bankers' bonuses - an exercise in hypocritical communication.

Bankers’ bonuses and the relaunch of the Big Society are strange bedfellows, and yet this week they will both hit the media headlines. Contradictory messages from the government - and what will the electorate make of it all?

The Big Society espouses a set of values where giving, voluntary work, charity, community spirit, " we are all in it together" and social responsibility are the drivers. They are the apex of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs ie self-actualisation and fulfilment. Contrast this with the imperatives of our bankers, where financial reward for work done and risks taken are the key words. Bonuses, taking and self-interest are likely to be the word associations that come to mind. Borrowing the language of Maslow again, we are talking of self-esteem, achievement and status as the bankers’ drivers.

The Big Society was a rather metaphysical entity when it first hit the lexicon in the 2010 election. It may be a little clearer now, but the electorate will be confused as to the values of a government encouraging volunteering, localism, social entrepreneurship and giving, yet still condoning the toxic behaviour of banks.

With Egyptian politics recently, western democracies were caught between desiring stability ( aka strong government ) and supporting self-determination. They sent out confused messages, as they tried to catch up with public opinion. In our domestic context, that is what is happening with bonuses and the Big Society.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Is this how Canary Wharf and other City addresses earn their bonuses?

An interesting little communication cameo was played out this afternoon.

I took a cold call from someone in Canary Wharf, canvassing me to purchase some advertising space on a social media site.

I have no problem with the sales principle here, but the manner in which it was played out was a revelation. It is said that on the phone, 85% of understanding comes from the sound of your voice and only 15% from what you actually say. First impressions do count, but today my canvasser scored a minus all round.

After an early question to establish that I was the decision maker, I was subjected to a staccato volley outlining how good the advertising opportunity was and that “ is a fact”. A fusillade of statistics followed for what felt like an eternity. No subtle soft schmoozing sale here. Reasoned features, benefits, logic and emotion were not on the agenda.

It is difficult to assess what one’s response should be. I tried telling the caller that he was talking too quickly and not giving me space to reply. The response was an audible gulp and the briefest of pauses followed by: “Well, I am the top salesman and meet my targets.” Not much listening then.

It beggars belief that a time when the economy is in dire straits, this type of arrogance comes out of one of our top commercial addresses. Has the bankers’ hubris just down the road become a contagion? I wished my caller well with his next conversation, but I am sure the irony eluded him and his arrogance moved obliviously onwards to the next name on the list. Is this how they get their bonuses?

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

"What we really really want." The barriers to business - we want visibility and access.

The government says it wants to remove the barriers to business: an objective of the newly created LEPs ( Local Enterprise Partnerships ). Lubricating finance and the removal of red tape are tentative steps in the right direction. The Grand National in accessing the public sector is a race yet to be won.

What entrepreneurs do not want is to be deluged with advisors. We can work out things for ourselves as and when. Business Link made a life for itself offering consultations when they were not needed, and its replacement online helpdesk may be of equal marginal merit

To coin a phrase what “we really really want”, is visibility and access. We have forgotten that businesses thrive when there are markets. Trade fairs and exhibitions at the NEC, Olympia, Earl’s Court and the ICC come into this category. If business funding could be used to enable start-up firms to have access to these watering holes at subsidised rates, then any entrepreneur worthy of the name will make a success of the opportunity.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Cutting the BBC World Service. We are degrading a key asset which projects our culture, influence and language.

On a visit to Beijing a couple of years ago, I was struck by how frequently I was stopped in the street. Those learning English wanted to practise their skills. So what? Well it is a recognition that the world’s largest populated country, values the key communication asset of another. Chinese is a tonal language not easily mastered by outsiders and yet Britain, a pin-prick in size, is home to the world's lingua franca.

All the more reprehensible then of the cuts announced yesterday at the BBC World Service. Cutting Albanian and Serbian services may seem marginal to our lives, but in recent times, these have been areas of instability and we are not to know where the next conflict may be. The World Service enables us to project our interests, values and culture in a cost-effective manner. It is trusted and in a world of variable freedoms respected as an impartial source.

We have a history of punching above our weight and the causes are of historical accident. We are at the centre of the Mercator world map, live on the 0 degrees line of longitude and are the home of GMT. We have a top seat at the UN and for better or worse, are still a financial centre of note. English is the language of air traffic control and it has a heady presence on the Internet.

This budget cut is a short-sighted move. When we have few levers to project ourselves in the global economy, we are degrading a key asset. This is a cut which has not been properly thought out. Our weak communication skills compromise our business and employability abilities at home. It is even worse for a trading nation, when we start dismantling a key asset which promotes us so well abroad.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

King George V1th and Mary Portas, Queen of Shops. Two takes on reaching an audience.

Last week the coincidental showing of an item on television and another at the cinema, made for an interesting comparative take on communication skills - or rather the lack of them.

The King's Speech, with Colin Firth depicting George V1th's stammering, was a rare foray of the silver screen into speech impediment. Here was a man who could not communicate with his subjects, and yet desperately wanted to do so.

Contrast this with the opening episode of Mary Portas' new ITV series: Mary Queen of Shops, where shop assistants had another issue; an ability to communicate when they could, but through poor training chose not to. Welcome to the world of woeful customer-care.

In the challenging business conditions of 2011, there are few levers that a manager can readily pull to make a quick difference to the bottom line. Customer relationship skills is one.

People tend to buy from people they like and yet a basic rule of three: smile, speak and service seems to have departed from the shopping malls. The cause is a debate of its own. One wonders how things may have been different, if George's coach had been let loose in Mary's world.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Have we made the recession worse by choosing the wrong number? 20% VAT and the perception of pricing.

Petrol retailers had to endure some anguish a year of so ago when price per litre hovered just below £1.00. There was something about the magic pound that provided a brake on suppliers, before they lifted the price through the bar. Now at £1.30 there is no holding back until £2.00 beckons.

Moving to Open All Hours-speak there are some further lessons for us. Price labels can be an irritation but none more so than £4.99. The shop assistant is forced to open the till, issue the change, record the transaction and a discentive for employee theft is created. The more cynical observer will observe that the pricing strategy, lulled the purchaser into forgetting that the bill is a penny short of a fiver, and the £4 dominates the perception of the sale.

In that context, the impact of the VAT change to 20% is worth a second look. In the hurly-burly of a financial transaction,a mental calculation with 17.5 percent does not come easily. Conversely, there is a certain ease in working out 20%.

We are handing over a fifth of the price as a tax. We can visualise a fifth of a cake and it is a big slice. That fifth will go around in peoples' head and the outcome is predictable - an encouragement to spend wisely and less. What chance an economic recovery then?

When the Treasury staff advocated a tax increase, I am sure they knew demand would be squeezed. I wonder whether they could have made a better fist of it, if they had chosen 19.5 or 20.5%. Then the public would have been stymied by the mental arithmetic.